Methodological issues based on the ideas of chaos theory for the consequences of sustainable development

Reflecting sustainable development, and the role the universities should have in it is reflected in this paper as part of dealing with complexity. It is the task of the university to teach and do research on complexity in order to be able to understand the diverse, complex issue of sustainable development. Sustainable development can be considered as a complex societal issue. The relation between the diverse phenomena and the role of the different actors in it is dynamic. Because of this interaction the outcome of the process is unpredictable. It is the task of the university to play a role in understanding and teaching this complex issue. This paper shows how difficult and sometimes impossible it is to predict outcomes of an (aspect of) complex societal issue such as sustainability. In order to illustrate this one of the aspects of sustainability, in casu the technological development and its economical consequences, is selected. The idea that on the long run economical processes can be seen as transitions between chaos and order is a starting point for the question we like to discuss concerning some aspects of the technological development in society. Technological development can not be considered without its historical background. Technological development is implemented in context, time and environment, and not only based on rational analyses of prizes of labor and capital. In consequence technological development sometimes is concentrated in clusters. Factors that influences technological development can be found in all parts of society. Therefore technological development can be considered as a complex interdisciplinary societal phenomenon. Scientific concepts and theories are developed to describe phenomena in reality. These concepts and theories enable us sometimes to observe things we were not aware of before. Chaos theory is a relatively new theory which focuses especially on moments of unpredictable processes. Concepts of chaos theory are fruitfully applied in many scientific disciplines such as physics, mathematics, meteorology, biology and humanities. There is found unpredictability in the weather (Lorenz, 1989), in the spreading of infectious diseases (Metz, 1990) and in observed heating of fluid. Realizing this, one could wonder whether concepts of chaos theory can also be used to describe processes of technological development. Leading economist have shown that technological development can be considered as an aspect of economical development. Most economists believe that economical development can be described with linear equations. Some scientists think that this linear development view in some cases has to be changed for a non-linear view. Theoretical notions and concepts coming from the chaos theory gives scientists the opportunity to describe the non-linear processes. Nonlinear processes of technology development can be sometimes non predictable. In these non linear processes there can be a development towards patterns (Besselaar & Leydesdorff, 1993). Concepts of chaos theory like attractors, entropy and self-organization can be used to express these patterns of development. For analyzing technological development and/or predicting future developments we encounter many methodological problems. We will discuss some of these methodological problems of non-linear technological development in relation with the concepts from the chaos theory and complex problems, in which we will give some answers and ask many questions. 1 Non-Linear development